Integrating Variability with Predictability

Sailing during this late summer has included times of easy expectation and also times of hair raising excitement. Small boat sailing is a process of examining the natural conditions and then constructing a plan to work with them in order to move the boat through the water. This post is about working with variability and predictability.

Predictable Currents at Buoy 25

The wind, weather forecast, tidal current, sun and moon angles, sail selection and sail trim all provide data that gets integrated before embarking and then again when out on the water. On calmer days you can take your time. On windier days with gusts 30% higher than the norm you get a change in apparent wind direction that require a prompt sail and steering adjustment.

Predicability
The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides 2-3 day forecasts that have proved to be pretty accurate. I keep the sites bookmarked on my iphone. Most of the time I only read the first...what are the winds going to be today?
NOAA NY area winds (scroll down to New York Harbor)
National Weather Service NY temps and winds upriver
Live calculating Tide, Sunrise, Sunset and Moon Calculations Haverstraw (non-gov site)
Regional Radar- (turn on animation to see directional change)

Variability
Last weekend was a great northwest wind day.  Northwest winds come when a Canadian high pressure system comes to town. They are characterized by periods of steady wind and then variable gusts. On the North-South oriented Hudson River a northwest wind means it is easy to sail South. Sailing back to the North requires tacking and sailing a longer than a straight line distance (86 sec video).

Last weekend on Haverstraw Bay the winds were 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. (A knot is 1.1 mile an hour).
This sailor near Fisher's Island on Long Island Sound experienced the variability and the force of the northwest wind that contributed to the boat grounding. This and other accidents that day are described in "The Day"- Thanks Joe)

Sailing blends the predictable and the variable that makes every voyage different. When the variable gets outside the range of predictable conditions a chain of events can happen so quickly that the training of what to do next, a process of real time integrated thinking, may not keep up. Accidents can happen. Some years I have shied away from heavy and variable winds conditions. This year I find it invigorating.

We wear life jackets, practice MOB (man overboard) drills and it's been great. More posts on sailing to follow.